Development of a Forecast Model for the Lower Pearl River Basin

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Marine Science


Ocean Science and Engineering


A numerical model for the Lower Pearl River Basin, a braided river system and its floodplain, is developed for the finite element-based coastal model, ADCIRC. Validation of water level prediction is confirmed for Hurricane Isaac in August, 2012 at five hydrographs (Pearl Riverat Walkiah Bluff near Industrial, MS (WSWM6); Pearl River above Slidell, LA (PRBL1); Pearl River above Slidell, LA (WPSL1) on the West Pearl River; NSTL Station near Stennis, MS (NAPM6); and Pearl River near CSX Railroad near Claiborne (EPCM6) on the East Pearl River)). Results indicate 1) minimal water level error occurs at the river mouth, 2) peak water levels are generally well represented and are within0.5 m of measured flood stage, and 3) prior to the storm, larger errors in simulated water levels along the West Pearl channel likely indicate mismatches between the model and local in situ depth variations. Other useful analyses include a capacity analysis of the braided river channels based on low, average, and high flow conditions from 2014, and a sensitivity analysis of water level and currents to bathymetry, bottom friction coefficient, and land slope representation.

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