Title

The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations For Future Development

Authors

Raleigh R. Hood, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceFollow
Gary W. Shenk, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office
Rachel L. Dixon, Chesapeake Research Consortium
Sean M.C. Smith, University of Maine
William P. Ball, Chesapeake Research Consortium
Jesse O. Bash, United States Environmental Protection Agency
Rich Batiuk, United States Environmental Protection Agency
Kathy Boomer, The Nature Conservancy
Damian C. Brady, University of MaineFollow
Carl Cerco, The United States Army Corps of Engineers
Peter Claggett, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office
Kim de Mutsert, Gulf Coast Research LaboratoryFollow
Zachary M. Easton, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityFollow
Andrew J. Elmore, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceFollow
Marjorie A.M. Friedrichs, Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceFollow
Lora A. Harris, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceFollow
Thomas F. Ihde, Morgan State UniversityFollow
Lara Lacher, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute
Li Li, Pennsylvania State UniversityFollow
Lewis C. Linker, United States Environmental Protection AgencyFollow
Andrew Miller, University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC)
Julia Moriarty, University of Colorado BoulderFollow
Gregory B. Noe, United States Geological Survey
George Onyullo, United States Department of Energy
Kenneth Rose, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
Katie Skalak, United States Geological Survey
Richard Tian, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program Office
Tamie L. Veith, United States Department of AgricultureFollow
Lisa Wainger, University of Maryland Center for Environmental ScienceFollow
Donald Weller, Smithsonian Environmental Research CenterFollow
Yinglong Joseph Zhang, Virginia Institute of Marine ScienceFollow

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

9-15-2021

Department

Coastal Sciences, Gulf Coast Research Laboratory

School

Ocean Science and Engineering

Abstract

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Publication Title

Ecological Modelling

Volume

456

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