Mathematical Modeling and Climate: Incidence, Repercussion and Impact On Communicable Entities and Vector Organisms

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

7-20-2022

Department

Biological Sciences

School

Biological, Environmental, and Earth Sciences

Abstract

Humanity has suffered throughout history the scourge of potentially fatal diseases, and where climate has a marked and decisive influence. The objective of the study consisted in demonstrating the existing relationship between the transmissible infectious entities Dengue and Malaria with climate by means of mathematical modeling in Villa Clara province, Cuba. The research covered two fundamental aspects: the influence exerted by some meteorological variables on the larval populations of culicidae, and on the Dengue entity. The mathematical model used was the Objective Regressive Regression (ORR) model, where the response variables were defined, as well as the explanatory variables. The general and specific larval densities showed a cyclical and seasonal behavior. Temperature, relative humidity, mean wind speed and atmospheric pressure proved to be excellent predictors of the population dynamics of entomoepidemiological important culicidae. A significant correlation of the infectious entity Dengue with minimum temperature (R=0.332; p=0.023) and water vapor tension (R=0.298; p=0.042) was obtained, as well as an inverse relationship with atmospheric pressure (R=-0.317; p=0.030). It is concluded that there is a close relationship between the infectious entities analyzed and the species of vector organisms with climate, which was corroborated by the mathematical modeling ROR, so it is possible to model and predict, in the short, medium and long term, both the population dynamics of culicidae with entomoepidemiological importance and the incidence of cases of Dengue.

Publication Title

Himalayan Journal of Applied Medical Sciences and Research

Volume

3

Issue

4

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