Choosing Not To Choose: Qatar’S Hedging In The Us-China Rivalry

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2026

School

Social Science and Global Studies

Abstract

This paper analyzes Qatar’s geopolitical strategy amid intensifying U.S.– China rivalry, asking whether Doha aligns, remains neutral, or strategically hedges. As a small but wealthy Gulf state, Qatar presents a critical case: it anchors U.S. security through hosting Al Udeid Air Base and holding Major Non-NATO Ally status, while simultaneously deepening economic integration with China via record-long Liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts. These dual alignments provide an ideal lens to test the viability of hedging under great-power competition. The study applies realism, liberalism, and hedging theory: realism highlights Qatar’s reliance on U.S. defense guarantees; liberalism emphasizes interdependence and institutions; hedging theory best explains Doha’s dual-track engagement as insurance under uncertainty. Methodologically, it employs multi-method qualitative analysis: content analysis codes policy choices, process tracing reconstructs key episodes—the Gulf blockade, Ukraine war, Huawei 5G dilemma—and discourse analysis interprets official rhetoric. Findings show Qatar deliberately hedges, enhancing autonomy but risking mistrust, asymmetric security dependence, and narrowing space as rivalry intensifies.

Publication Title

Countries Studies

Volume

4

Issue

2

First Page

335

Last Page

371

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